More Fun With Headlines
Cidu Bill on Dec 3rd 2008
This is what the congressionally mandated report, released yesterday, actually said:
“The commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.”
Did anybody see a single newspaper headline that didn’t say that a WMD attack was either “Likely,” “Almost Inevitable” or “Inevitable”?
Filed in Bill Bickel, WMD, headlines, media, terrorist | 14 responses so far
Charlene Dec 3rd 2008 at 04:48 pm 1
I know, but it isn’t just the media who confuses “more likely than not” with “certain” or “most” with “all”.
“More likely than not” and “most” mean the same thing: 50% plus one.
Adam F Dec 3rd 2008 at 05:11 pm 2
I’d disagree, Charlene, at least connotation-wise. “Most” implies not just a majority, but a significant one, at least to my ears.
Miss Appropriate Dec 3rd 2008 at 08:31 pm 3
Technically, the main definition of “most” is “majority”. If you have a million marbles and I have a million and one, I have the most. The usage as in “we were most of the way home” is farther down on the list.
As for “more likely than not”… on the continuum from “likely” to “not likely”, wouldn’t that phrase at least fall on the “likely” side of the center? Not that it’s a totally correct, but at least it’s closer than the “apology” headlines about Bush (I still can’t decide if “acknowledge” is too strong a word for what he did).
assdad Dec 4th 2008 at 12:49 am 4
This is inevitable because man is happy to destroy himself in any way. Mutually Assured Destructionis a deterrent, rather then a solution, because we, over time, forget history. Nuclear annhilation was a horrifying pervasive fear in the 1950s but our world, having gone so long without a nuclear attack, ignores the danger. One crazed murderous dictator could start a nuclear war. We do have the U.N. and peace treaties and assume that they will prevent war but the League of Nations and disarmament, following World War I, were treated the same way.
Alexandra Erin Dec 4th 2008 at 01:23 am 5
That reminds me of when Matt Groening, on the eve of the thirteenth season of The Simpsons, said “I have a feeling we’re closer now to the end than the beginning.”… the media went nuts with talk about how he’d “hinted” about cancellation.
Yeah… around season 25 or so.
Alexandra Erin Dec 4th 2008 at 01:25 am 6
Although I have to say that I agree that to, ahem, most people, “most” connotes not just a majority but a particularly strong majority. Still doesn’t excuse blowing up “more likely than not” into an inevitably. Even if “most” suggests a large majority, “more of this thing than the other thing” very clearly does not.
padraig Dec 4th 2008 at 10:55 am 7
“more likely than not”
“somewhere in the world”
Can they be more vague? And 2013, did they pick that year with a dartboard, or did someone figure 13 will be unlucky?
This is what happens when you ask horoscope writers to set foreign policy.
Robert Warden Dec 4th 2008 at 11:36 am 8
Was there more to the report than that? The headline I saw mentioned biological warfare. Maybe that sounds scarier than WMD or nuclear. In any case, you can trust the media to go with whatever will sell themselves the best, like the prostitutes that some of them are.
CIDU Bill Dec 4th 2008 at 12:10 pm 9
There was plenty more to the report, Robert, but this was the quantification that every headline in the world distorted — and since I was making a point about teh headlines and not the report itself, this is all I quoted.
Miss Appropriate Dec 4th 2008 at 12:41 pm 10
2013 is five years from now, so I assume they just picked it as a round number. As for their very general prediction, I have to admit that my initial reaction was, “Duh!”
By the way, I predict that in the next five years it is more likely than not that there will be a major flood somewhere in the world, there will be a devastating fire somewhere in the world, or there will be a major earthquake somewhere in the world.
Howabominable (aka Lindsey ^_^) Dec 4th 2008 at 02:19 pm 11
Yesterday I read a topic by someone who got out their tarot cards and say some DISTURBING NEWS. She said that the tarot cards told her that there would be MORE TURMOIL in the world unless we set aside our differences and made peace with each other!
That is so brilliant, I’m glad we have tarot readers to tell us what to do, never would have figured that out otherwise!
CIDU Bill Dec 4th 2008 at 02:21 pm 12
I suspect they chose 2013 a a shorthand for “by tehe nd of Obama’s first term.”
This is just a guess, though, since congressional committees rare consult with or confide in me. Their loss, of course.
ty Dec 4th 2008 at 02:53 pm 13
Miss Appropriate - I’ll go even further and predict that most, if not all, of the disasters you list may occur.
Miss Appropriate Dec 4th 2008 at 09:03 pm 14
ty - Whoa, I’m not willing to stick out my neck that far!